MODEL VERDICT
Carriage Services, Inc. (CSV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $49.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $51.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $48.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $46.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $48.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $42.63 | -13.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $68.45 | +39.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $65.22 | +32.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $38.97 | -20.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $105.79 | +115.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $25.23 | -48.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $277.02 | +463.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $11.52 | -76.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $27.47 | -44.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $65.47 | +33.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $35.46 | -27.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $60.02 | +22.0% | 100% | 81 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $40 | $47 | $55 | $62 | $69 |
| Conservative (19%) | $43 | $50 | $58 | $66 | $74 |
| Base Case (29.6%) | $46 | $55 | $63 | $72 | $80 |
| Bull Case (40%) | $50 | $59 | $68 | $77 | $86 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.42 | 18.98 | 10.47 | 35.60 | 11.45 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.09 | 16.25 | 11.97 | 25.15 | 5.12 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.61 | 13.39 | 9.68 | 15.20 | 2.16 |
| P/FCF | 17.20 | 16.56 | 8.36 | 29.62 | 6.62 |
| P/FFO | 13.24 | 14.27 | 7.05 | 21.42 | 5.81 |
| P/AFFO | 27.41 | 27.23 | 11.69 | 39.13 | 11.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.50 | 2.60 | 2.03 | 9.19 | 2.54 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.97 | 1.68 | 1.01 | 17.56 | 6.03 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CSV's fair value at $60.02 vs the current price of $49.19, implying +22.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $60.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $48.02 (P10) to $64.01 (P90), with a median of $55.75.
CSV's current P/E of 15.1x compares to the industry median of 20.1x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -24.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.4x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
7 analysts cover CSV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $50.00 (range: $40.00 — $60.00), implying +1.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (6), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 16.0% is 13.5 percentage points above the 7-year average (16.9%), with a Z-score of +1.8σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$77. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CSV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5640.0% to approximately $77. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.