Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT)
Valuation Overview•Is Commvault Systems, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Moderate quality score of 67/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though growth presents a headwind.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
CVLT exhibits elite business quality, driven by exceptional capital efficiency and highly lucrative margins (highlighted by a massive 268.6% ROIC). However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (14.7% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 7.8%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $311.7M | +18.9% | +14.7% | +10.3% | +7.1% | |
| EBITDA | $37.7M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | $14.6M | -7.2% | — | — | +86.9% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.34 | -6.0% | — | — | +87.8% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $131.8M | +16.5% | +12.4% | +15.4% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 80.3% | 81.4% | 82.4% | 83.6% |
| Operating Margin | 7.8% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 2.3% |
| Net Margin | 6.0% | 11.2% | 6.7% | 2.0% |
| FCF Margin | 20.0% | 21.4% | 21.6% | 17.7% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.09 | $1.28 | +17.4% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.98 | $1.17 | +19.4% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.94 | $0.91 | -3.1% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.97 | $1.01 | +4.1% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.93 | $1.03 | +10.8% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.87 | $0.94 | +8.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.75 | $0.83 | +10.7% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.75 | $0.85 | +13.3% |
Total return is -27.8% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -52.8%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +4.7% | -4.6% | — |
| 1Y | -27.8% | -52.8% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +22.0% | +1.5% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +10.8% | -2.7% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +11.2% | -2.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT) valuation, health, and returns.
Commvault Systems, Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -63.5% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $47.42)
Commvault Systems, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $47.42 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $67.98 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $143.07 (implying +10.0% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Commvault Systems, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 67/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.3 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 268.6%.
Commvault Systems, Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 7.8% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by -1.2% in the last 12 months.
Commvault Systems, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +18.9% 1Y revenue growth and -6.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +14.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 33 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 92% of recent quarters with a 2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +10.0% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Commvault Systems, Inc. include: -61.5% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.09x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.