MODEL VERDICT
Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $99.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $93.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $94.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $93.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $88.88 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $68.45 | -31.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $38.50 | -61.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $35.61 | -64.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $110.86 | +11.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $63.75 | -36.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $129.95 | +30.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $106.17 | +6.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $91.42 | -8.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $34.90 | -64.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $110.50 | +11.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $89.90 | -9.7% | 100% | 82 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 53× | 58× | 63× (Current) | 68× | 73× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $87 | $95 | $104 | $112 | $120 |
| Conservative (7%) | $89 | $98 | $106 | $114 | $123 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $92 | $101 | $109 | $118 | $127 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $95 | $104 | $113 | $122 | $131 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 66.60 | 68.82 | 40.24 | 88.51 | 20.43 |
| EV/EBIT | 62.01 | 64.18 | 42.27 | 77.42 | 14.64 |
| EV/EBITDA | 58.61 | 58.26 | 38.50 | 79.45 | 17.55 |
| P/FCF | 25.23 | 27.77 | 17.13 | 34.08 | 6.25 |
| P/FFO | 89.74 | 66.41 | 38.80 | 222.03 | 74.82 |
| P/TBV | 33.68 | 34.72 | 10.02 | 63.66 | 21.84 |
| P/AFFO | 110.25 | 69.47 | 39.72 | 308.57 | 111.62 |
| P/B Ratio | 97.18 | 17.42 | 6.16 | 593.30 | 218.86 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.88 | 4.44 | 3.76 | 8.11 | 1.58 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CVLT's fair value at $89.90 vs the current price of $99.57, implying -9.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $89.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $77.14 (P10) to $105.20 (P90), with a median of $90.72.
CVLT's current P/E of 63.0x compares to the industry median of 22.5x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +179.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 66.6x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
33 analysts cover CVLT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $141.64 (range: $100.00 — $185.00), implying +42.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (15), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CVLT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (4.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2800.0% to approximately $72. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.