MODEL VERDICT
Community West Bancshares (CWBC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $25.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $24.65 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $24.01 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $23.81 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $23.20 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $27.93 | +8.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $27.77 | +7.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $26.91 | +4.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $16.46 | -36.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $27.93 | +8.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $24.59 | -4.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $23.49 | -8.8% | 100% | 83 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $18 | $22 | $27 | $31 | $35 |
| Conservative (5%) | $19 | $23 | $27 | $32 | $36 |
| Base Case (4.3%) | $19 | $23 | $27 | $31 | $35 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $19 | $23 | $28 | $32 | $36 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.47 | 6.98 | 5.60 | 43.04 | 13.62 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.97 | 7.40 | 1.16 | 37.80 | 12.66 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.83 | 7.25 | 0.94 | 31.48 | 10.49 |
| P/FCF | 9.55 | 7.54 | 4.02 | 19.39 | 4.93 |
| P/FFO | 10.36 | 5.91 | 4.42 | 33.71 | 11.51 |
| P/TBV | 1.12 | 1.30 | 0.60 | 1.45 | 0.33 |
| P/AFFO | 17.09 | 6.04 | 4.63 | 68.86 | 25.52 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.82 | 0.92 | 0.47 | 1.05 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.94 | 2.03 | 1.46 | 2.20 | 0.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CWBC's fair value at $23.49 vs the current price of $25.75, implying -8.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $23.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.40 (P10) to $28.88 (P90), with a median of $23.98.
CWBC's current P/E of 12.9x compares to the industry median of 14.0x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -7.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.5x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
4 analysts cover CWBC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $29.75 (range: $29.00 — $30.50), implying +15.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CWBC trades at the 3980th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CWBC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1810.0% to approximately $30. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.