MODEL VERDICT
California Water Service Group (CWT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $42.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $46.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $44.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $44.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $46.94 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $46.43 | +9.6% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $46.07 | +8.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 4 industry peers | $45.66 | +7.8% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $51.93 | +22.6% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $39.46 | -6.8% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $9.04 | -78.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $76.73 | +81.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $46.39 | +9.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $51.81 | +22.3% | 100% | 72 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $35 | $39 | $44 | $48 | $53 |
| Conservative (5%) | $36 | $41 | $45 | $50 | $54 |
| Base Case (1.8%) | $35 | $39 | $44 | $48 | $53 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $35 | $40 | $44 | $48 | $53 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 32.69 | 34.26 | 13.95 | 57.00 | 14.08 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.41 | 28.18 | 13.80 | 43.61 | 9.52 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.57 | 17.76 | 11.15 | 20.56 | 3.53 |
| P/FFO | 13.86 | 15.45 | 8.18 | 17.44 | 3.68 |
| P/TBV | 2.52 | 2.60 | 1.58 | 3.36 | 0.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.42 | 2.49 | 1.52 | 3.18 | 0.70 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.47 | 3.48 | 2.56 | 4.69 | 0.75 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates CWT's fair value at $51.81 vs the current price of $42.36, implying +22.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $51.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $48.86 (P10) to $61.26 (P90), with a median of $54.89.
CWT's current P/E of 19.7x compares to the industry median of 21.6x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -8.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 32.7x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
10 analysts cover CWT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $54.00 (range: $54.00 — $54.00), implying +27.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CWT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6710.0% to approximately $71. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.