MODEL VERDICT
Danaos Corporation (DAC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $119.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $117.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $117.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $116.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $115.02 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $189.65 | +58.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $214.11 | +78.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $195.87 | +63.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $134.57 | +12.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $258.48 | +115.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $139.02 | +16.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $752.24 | +528.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $154.39 | +28.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $125.01 | +4.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $193.99 | +62.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $134.57 | +12.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $199.61 | +66.7% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 6× | 8× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (19%) | $127 | $127 | $127 | $191 | $254 |
| Conservative (31%) | $140 | $140 | $140 | $210 | $279 |
| Base Case (46.9%) | $157 | $157 | $157 | $236 | $314 |
| Bull Case (63%) | $175 | $175 | $175 | $262 | $350 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 2.95 | 2.61 | 1.46 | 5.48 | 1.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.41 | 3.43 | 2.10 | 9.21 | 2.79 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.85 | 2.68 | 1.83 | 6.34 | 1.91 |
| P/FCF | 6.50 | 5.08 | 0.75 | 21.23 | 7.49 |
| P/FFO | 1.85 | 2.00 | 0.92 | 2.48 | 0.57 |
| P/TBV | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.17 | 0.74 | 0.17 |
| P/AFFO | 3.23 | 3.00 | 1.06 | 6.04 | 1.79 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.17 | 0.74 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.35 | 1.51 | 0.33 | 2.23 | 0.59 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates DAC's fair value at $199.61 vs the current price of $119.77, implying +66.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $199.61 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $135.19 (P10) to $195.96 (P90), with a median of $164.63.
DAC's current P/E of 4.5x compares to the industry median of 7.3x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -38.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 2.9x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover DAC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $105.00 (range: $105.00 — $105.00), implying -12.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DAC trades at the 1200th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (2.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DAC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (69.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 400.0% to approximately $115. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.