MODEL VERDICT
Dana Incorporated (DAN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $35.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $38.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $37.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $35.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $36.46 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $28.08 | -21.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $9.75 | -72.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $22.94 | -36.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $9.08 | -74.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $9.75 | -72.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $22.94 | -36.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.70 | -45.1% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 48× | 52× | 56× (Current) | 60× | 64× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $32 | $35 | $37 | $40 | $43 |
| Conservative (7%) | $33 | $35 | $38 | $41 | $44 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $34 | $37 | $39 | $42 | $45 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $35 | $38 | $41 | $44 | $46 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.47 | 27.01 | 11.67 | 56.19 | 20.36 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.07 | 16.25 | 7.79 | 29.81 | 8.01 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.75 | 11.86 | 6.88 | 15.90 | 2.81 |
| P/FCF | 21.00 | 12.52 | 10.40 | 47.01 | 15.56 |
| P/FFO | 7.20 | 5.69 | 4.60 | 14.88 | 3.71 |
| P/TBV | 2.12 | 1.88 | 1.42 | 3.90 | 0.85 |
| P/AFFO | 100.37 | 17.19 | 14.51 | 352.58 | 168.16 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.60 | 1.24 | 1.06 | 3.60 | 0.89 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.30 | 0.31 | 0.16 | 0.44 | 0.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates DAN's fair value at $19.70 vs the current price of $35.87, implying -45.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.30 (P10) to $20.78 (P90), with a median of $16.88.
DAN's current P/E of 56.0x compares to the industry median of 15.2x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +268.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.5x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
24 analysts cover DAN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $37.00 (range: $32.00 — $42.00), implying +3.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DAN trades at the 9130th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (30.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DAN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (3.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7030.0% to approximately $61. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.