MODEL VERDICT
Youdao, Inc. (DAO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $10.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $10.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $10.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $9.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $9.72 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $23.06 | +114.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $39.79 | +270.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $71.44 | +564.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $258.57 | +2305.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $307.63 | +2761.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $65.74 | +511.6% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/S Ratio | 0.51 | 0.27 | 0.09 | 1.25 | 0.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates DAO's fair value at $65.74 vs the current price of $10.75, implying +511.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $65.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $46.05 (P10) to $82.79 (P90), with a median of $63.67.
DAO's current P/E of N/Ax compares to the industry median of 15.6x (5 peers in the group). This represents a N/A discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: N/A.
9 analysts cover DAO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $6.50 (range: $6.50 — $6.50), implying -39.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DAO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.