MODEL VERDICT
Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $63.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $60.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $57.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $58.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $61.27 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $207.48 | +225.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $186.90 | +193.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $10.00 | -84.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 1 industry peers | $70.66 | +10.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 1 industry peers | $24.30 | -61.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 1 industry peers | $62.62 | -1.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $23.84 | -62.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $32.45 | -49.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 1 industry peers | $9.73 | -84.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 1 industry peers | $71.25 | +11.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $96.15 | +50.8% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 138× | 151× | 164× (Current) | 177× | 190× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $55 | $60 | $65 | $70 | $76 |
| Conservative (5%) | $57 | $62 | $67 | $72 | $78 |
| Base Case (-26.2%) | $40 | $43 | $47 | $51 | $55 |
| Bull Case (-35%) | $35 | $38 | $41 | $45 | $48 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.07 | 17.77 | 12.49 | 92.31 | 28.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.78 | 14.86 | 12.87 | 26.32 | 5.42 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.32 | 9.90 | 8.03 | 14.36 | 2.06 |
| P/FCF | 20.42 | 24.03 | 8.49 | 28.31 | 8.57 |
| P/FFO | 9.63 | 9.07 | 6.95 | 14.91 | 2.96 |
| P/TBV | 6.42 | 6.69 | 3.83 | 9.68 | 2.07 |
| P/AFFO | 18.62 | 16.71 | 12.08 | 30.22 | 6.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.18 | 1.79 | 1.20 | 3.46 | 0.94 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.60 | 1.41 | 0.94 | 2.70 | 0.70 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates DAR's fair value at $96.15 vs the current price of $63.77, implying +50.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $96.15 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $76.06 (P10) to $108.69 (P90), with a median of $92.39.
DAR's current P/E of 163.5x compares to the industry median of 25.6x (1 peers in the group). This represents a +538.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.1x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
25 analysts cover DAR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $62.86 (range: $50.00 — $73.00), implying -1.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (20), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DAR trades at the 9660th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (29.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DAR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.7σ, meaning margins are 1.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4420.0% to approximately $92. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.