MODEL VERDICT
Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $141.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $139.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $138.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $141.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $139.99 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $172.82 | +22.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $294.03 | +108.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $279.69 | +98.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $202.68 | +43.5% | 100% | 47 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.67 | 21.73 | 4.23 | 45.67 | 13.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.11 | 19.61 | 4.50 | 26.38 | 7.57 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.54 | 12.19 | 10.46 | 15.94 | 2.09 |
| P/FCF | 1304.09 | 47.66 | 18.20 | 6344.04 | 2817.46 |
| P/FFO | 10.72 | 10.65 | 3.50 | 15.00 | 4.19 |
| P/TBV | 6.35 | 3.88 | 3.16 | 18.98 | 6.23 |
| P/AFFO | 15.19 | 14.66 | 3.90 | 25.10 | 6.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.58 | 1.40 | 1.14 | 2.15 | 0.45 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.07 | 0.96 | 0.83 | 1.72 | 0.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates DCO's fair value at $202.68 vs the current price of $141.24, implying +43.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 47/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $202.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $162.49 (P10) to $220.93 (P90), with a median of $191.40.
DCO's current P/E of -62.2x compares to the industry median of 37.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -266.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.7x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
20 analysts cover DCO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $141.00 (range: $132.00 — $150.00), implying -0.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 47/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DCO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.