MODEL VERDICT
Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. (DCOM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $36.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $35.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $37.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $36.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $36.09 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $33.96 | -5.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $42.76 | +18.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 6 bank peers | $43.87 | +21.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $32.10 | -11.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $33.93 | -5.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $37.25 | +3.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $40.11 | +11.2% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $27 | $32 | $36 | $41 | $46 |
| Conservative (5%) | $27 | $32 | $37 | $42 | $47 |
| Base Case (6.4%) | $28 | $33 | $38 | $43 | $48 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $28 | $33 | $39 | $44 | $49 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.48 | 13.90 | 8.53 | 55.89 | 17.17 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.56 | 16.49 | 8.53 | 51.38 | 16.87 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.55 | 15.07 | 7.97 | 46.36 | 15.13 |
| P/FCF | 11.01 | 12.08 | 4.21 | 18.02 | 4.55 |
| P/FFO | 18.10 | 14.34 | 7.54 | 33.30 | 10.69 |
| P/TBV | 1.27 | 1.22 | 0.97 | 2.22 | 0.44 |
| P/AFFO | 19.67 | 14.51 | 7.71 | 40.32 | 12.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.13 | 1.05 | 0.84 | 2.02 | 0.41 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.70 | 2.57 | 1.59 | 4.80 | 1.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates DCOM's fair value at $40.11 vs the current price of $36.07, implying +11.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $40.11 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.97 (P10) to $47.83 (P90), with a median of $39.85.
DCOM's current P/E of 15.2x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +6.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.5x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
10 analysts cover DCOM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $39.50 (range: $36.00 — $43.00), implying +9.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DCOM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5970.0% to approximately $58. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.