MODEL VERDICT
Easterly Government Properties, Inc. (DEA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $23.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $23.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $23.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $23.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $23.05 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $21.47 | -8.9% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $26.53 | +12.6% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $61.09 | +159.2% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $36.89 | +56.5% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $7.22 | -69.4% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $11.93 | -49.4% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $20.91 | -11.3% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $25.85 | +9.7% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.82 | +26.5% | 100% | 79 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 67× | 74× | 81× (Current) | 88× | 95× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 |
| Conservative (5%) | $20 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| Base Case (-4.8%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 |
| Bull Case (-6%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 151.28 | 70.00 | 41.96 | 593.30 | 198.06 |
| EV/EBIT | 42.38 | 36.40 | 29.70 | 71.46 | 15.03 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.68 | 14.85 | 11.74 | 19.12 | 2.65 |
| P/FCF | 8.60 | 10.30 | 3.68 | 12.29 | 3.61 |
| P/FFO | 12.96 | 11.54 | 7.52 | 17.87 | 4.14 |
| P/TBV | 1.22 | 1.03 | 0.81 | 1.59 | 0.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.07 | 0.92 | 0.70 | 1.37 | 0.29 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.33 | 4.42 | 2.84 | 7.41 | 1.87 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates DEA's fair value at $29.82 vs the current price of $23.57, implying +26.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $26.22 (P10) to $37.59 (P90), with a median of $30.94.
DEA's current P/E of 81.3x compares to the industry median of 24.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +226.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 151.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
8 analysts cover DEA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $16.41 (range: $11.00 — $26.45), implying -30.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DEA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 17270.0% to approximately $64. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.