MODEL VERDICT
Diversified Energy Company PLC (DEC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $15.65 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $16.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $15.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $15.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $15.55 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $19.59 | +25.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $70.65 | +351.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $67.00 | +328.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $43.90 | +180.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $39.27 | +150.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $50.17 | +220.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $108.64 | +594.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $75.00 | +379.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $67.00 | +328.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $43.90 | +180.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $55.51 | +254.7% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 5× | 7× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $19 | $19 | $19 | $24 | $33 |
| Conservative (7%) | $20 | $20 | $20 | $24 | $34 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $20 | $20 | $20 | $25 | $35 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $21 | $21 | $21 | $26 | $36 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 5.14 | 3.16 | 0.94 | 11.32 | 5.47 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.42 | 2.51 | 1.78 | 8.96 | 3.95 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.57 | 7.34 | 1.46 | 45.23 | 18.21 |
| P/FCF | 3.62 | 3.85 | 2.12 | 4.90 | 0.93 |
| P/FFO | 4.54 | 4.47 | 0.73 | 11.32 | 4.19 |
| P/TBV | 1.34 | 1.23 | 0.96 | 1.78 | 0.35 |
| P/AFFO | 6.06 | 5.35 | 0.78 | 15.40 | 5.78 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.31 | 1.19 | 0.94 | 1.73 | 0.33 |
| Div Yield | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.24 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.26 | 1.01 | 0.62 | 2.60 | 0.74 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates DEC's fair value at $55.51 vs the current price of $15.65, implying +254.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $55.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $38.28 (P10) to $78.68 (P90), with a median of $53.14.
DEC's current P/E of 3.4x compares to the industry median of 14.6x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -76.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 5.1x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover DEC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $22.33 (range: $20.00 — $24.00), implying +42.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DEC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (11.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5760.0% to approximately $25. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.