MODEL VERDICT
DHT Holdings, Inc. (DHT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $18.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $18.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $18.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $17.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $17.46 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $20.91 | +10.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $13.55 | -28.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $14.48 | -23.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $12.81 | -32.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $13.21 | -30.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $13.31 | -29.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $6.77 | -64.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $8.00 | -57.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $8.85 | -53.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $14.48 | -23.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $12.77 | -32.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.31 | -24.1% | 100% | 73 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $16 | $18 | $20 | $23 | $25 |
| Conservative (11%) | $16 | $19 | $21 | $24 | $26 |
| Base Case (17.0%) | $17 | $20 | $22 | $25 | $28 |
| Bull Case (23%) | $18 | $21 | $23 | $26 | $29 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.34 | 9.91 | 3.25 | 24.00 | 8.00 |
| EV/EBIT | 49.43 | 16.85 | 4.16 | 194.76 | 70.91 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.83 | 8.55 | 2.90 | 11.98 | 3.06 |
| P/FCF | 9.64 | 12.43 | 1.77 | 13.64 | 5.03 |
| P/FFO | 6.57 | 7.36 | 2.28 | 9.94 | 2.44 |
| P/TBV | 1.16 | 1.37 | 0.65 | 1.55 | 0.38 |
| P/AFFO | 8.00 | 8.38 | 2.45 | 11.21 | 3.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.16 | 1.36 | 0.65 | 1.54 | 0.38 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.24 | 0.08 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.43 | 2.62 | 1.29 | 3.22 | 0.75 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates DHT's fair value at $14.31 vs the current price of $18.86, implying -24.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.44 (P10) to $21.25 (P90), with a median of $16.61.
DHT's current P/E of 16.8x compares to the industry median of 12.9x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +30.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.3x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
16 analysts cover DHT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $18.00 (range: $18.00 — $18.00), implying -4.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 41.2% is 21.0 percentage points above the 5-year average (23.8%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$8. (2) Multiple compression: DHT trades at the 5560th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.3×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DHT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (23.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5760.0% to approximately $8. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.