MODEL VERDICT
Denison Mines Corp. (DNN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $3.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $3.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $3.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $3.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $3.56 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $0.07 | -98.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $0.83 | -78.0% | 100% | 41 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 50.89 | 66.47 | 17.70 | 68.50 | 28.76 |
| EV/EBIT | 51.23 | 50.79 | 15.85 | 87.05 | 35.60 |
| P/FFO | 32.60 | 41.25 | 15.15 | 41.40 | 15.11 |
| P/TBV | 2.91 | 2.36 | 1.51 | 6.48 | 1.63 |
| P/AFFO | 39.24 | 43.26 | 15.66 | 58.78 | 21.84 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.91 | 2.36 | 1.51 | 6.48 | 1.63 |
| P/S Ratio | 271.99 | 106.21 | 15.76 | 814.84 | 304.50 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 3 valuation metrics, the model estimates DNN's fair value at $0.83 vs the current price of $3.75, implying -78.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 41/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $0.83 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
DNN's current P/E of -20.4x compares to the industry median of 18.5x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -210.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 50.9x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover DNN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $4.25 (range: $4.25 — $4.25), implying +13.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (0), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 41/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DNN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.