MODEL VERDICT
Dnow Inc. (DNOW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $13.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $12.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $11.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $11.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $12.21 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $17.46 | +30.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $69.21 | +416.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $68.40 | +410.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $26.27 | +95.9% | 100% | 47 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 55.64 | 14.29 | 5.05 | 188.94 | 89.00 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.35 | 9.92 | 6.92 | 41.41 | 14.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.71 | 8.14 | 5.84 | 20.71 | 6.75 |
| P/FCF | 11.97 | 5.77 | 4.34 | 37.75 | 14.45 |
| P/FFO | 14.98 | 10.87 | 4.50 | 33.70 | 12.88 |
| P/TBV | 1.52 | 1.48 | 1.12 | 2.01 | 0.27 |
| P/AFFO | 17.30 | 11.69 | 4.79 | 41.03 | 16.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.18 | 1.15 | 0.70 | 1.67 | 0.29 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.54 | 0.55 | 0.41 | 0.66 | 0.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates DNOW's fair value at $26.27 vs the current price of $13.41, implying +95.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 47/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $26.27 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.69 (P10) to $33.38 (P90), with a median of $28.02.
DNOW's current P/E of -17.9x compares to the industry median of 29.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -160.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 55.6x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover DNOW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $17.00 (range: $16.00 — $19.00), implying +26.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 47/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DNOW.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.