MODEL VERDICT
Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $3.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $3.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $3.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $3.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $3.32 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $23.07 | +503.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $23.96 | +527.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.41 | +408.0% | 100% | 57 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 169.62 | 111.80 | 37.91 | 416.98 | 168.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.85 | 24.24 | 20.76 | 30.19 | 4.19 |
| P/FFO | 25.16 | 23.57 | 12.46 | 41.04 | 12.58 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.64 | 1.46 | 1.01 | 2.37 | 0.55 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.28 | 1.13 | 0.45 | 2.29 | 0.68 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates DNUT's fair value at $19.41 vs the current price of $3.82, implying +408.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.04 (P10) to $28.85 (P90), with a median of $20.93.
DNUT's current P/E of -1.3x compares to the industry median of 25.2x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -105.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover DNUT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $4.50 (range: $3.00 — $6.00), implying +17.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (3), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DNUT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.