MODEL VERDICT
Diana Shipping Inc. (DSX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $2.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $2.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $2.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $2.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $2.42 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $3.89 | +52.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $0.98 | -61.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $0.47 | -81.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $7.01 | +173.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $0.52 | -79.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $4.31 | +68.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $0.63 | -75.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $4.19 | +63.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $0.47 | -81.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $7.01 | +173.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.82 | +10.3% | 100% | 86 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 38× | 41× | 44× (Current) | 47× | 50× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
| Conservative (5%) | $2 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
| Base Case (-11.8%) | $2 | $2 | $2 | $2 | $3 |
| Bull Case (-16%) | $2 | $2 | $2 | $2 | $2 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.79 | 6.64 | 2.87 | 33.33 | 13.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.96 | 12.28 | 6.61 | 38.08 | 11.36 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.10 | 7.19 | 4.90 | 16.99 | 5.11 |
| P/FCF | 7.00 | 5.49 | 3.92 | 14.98 | 4.17 |
| P/FFO | 3.82 | 3.20 | 2.00 | 7.72 | 2.02 |
| P/TBV | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.84 | 0.15 |
| P/AFFO | 5.36 | 4.46 | 2.85 | 8.35 | 2.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.84 | 0.15 |
| Div Yield | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.25 | 0.09 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.23 | 1.15 | 0.98 | 1.54 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates DSX's fair value at $2.82 vs the current price of $2.56, implying +10.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.43 (P10) to $3.73 (P90), with a median of $3.04.
DSX's current P/E of 43.5x compares to the industry median of 8.0x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +446.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.8x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
27 analysts cover DSX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $3.00 (range: $3.00 — $3.00), implying +17.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (18), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DSX trades at the 9200th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DSX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (13.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6250.0% to approximately $1. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.