MODEL VERDICT
DTE Energy Company (DTE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $148.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $145.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $144.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $137.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $129.89 | Below threshold | +4.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 38 industry peers | $149.49 | +0.8% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 36 industry peers | $214.63 | +44.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 31 industry peers | $151.82 | +2.4% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 38 analyst estimates | $138.47 | -6.6% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 18 industry peers | $38.59 | -74.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 36 industry peers | $152.85 | +3.1% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $248.24 | +67.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 38 industry peers | $149.49 | +0.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $160.51 | +8.3% | 100% | 90 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $122 | $137 | $151 | $166 | $180 |
| Conservative (5%) | $126 | $141 | $156 | $170 | $185 |
| Base Case (-0.1%) | $120 | $134 | $148 | $162 | $176 |
| Bull Case (-0%) | $120 | $134 | $148 | $162 | $176 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.77 | 17.84 | 14.59 | 25.60 | 3.63 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.37 | 23.22 | 14.25 | 32.20 | 5.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.15 | 13.03 | 6.82 | 14.10 | 2.53 |
| P/FFO | 8.26 | 7.98 | 7.09 | 9.80 | 0.92 |
| P/TBV | 2.71 | 2.64 | 1.92 | 3.54 | 0.49 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.08 | 2.14 | 1.58 | 2.66 | 0.35 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.66 | 1.69 | 1.20 | 2.01 | 0.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates DTE's fair value at $160.51 vs the current price of $148.24, implying +8.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $160.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $142.06 (P10) to $184.07 (P90), with a median of $161.73.
DTE's current P/E of 21.0x compares to the industry median of 21.2x (38 peers in the group). This represents a -0.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.8x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
45 analysts cover DTE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $150.63 (range: $141.00 — $157.00), implying +1.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (25), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DTE trades at the 4470th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (18.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DTE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1170.0% to approximately $131. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.