MODEL VERDICT
Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $43.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $44.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $44.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $43.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $35.76 | Below threshold | +21.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $43.34 | -0.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $43.45 | -0.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $59.95 | +37.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 37 industry peers | $45.46 | +4.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $52.77 | +21.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 38 industry peers | $41.61 | -4.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $52.03 | +19.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $55.98 | +28.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $59.94 | +37.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 37 industry peers | $46.90 | +7.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $55.02 | +26.4% | 100% | 88 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $26 | $35 | $44 | $52 | $61 |
| Conservative (7%) | $27 | $36 | $45 | $54 | $63 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $28 | $37 | $46 | $55 | $65 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $29 | $38 | $48 | $57 | $67 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.18 | 7.76 | 6.74 | 10.54 | 1.51 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.27 | 7.50 | 5.59 | 95.66 | 35.99 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.43 | 4.70 | 4.07 | 9.81 | 2.08 |
| P/FCF | 25.25 | 11.50 | 7.39 | 80.11 | 28.17 |
| P/FFO | 5.22 | 4.72 | 3.30 | 8.99 | 2.07 |
| P/TBV | 2.49 | 2.54 | 1.46 | 3.81 | 0.89 |
| P/AFFO | 10.41 | 9.97 | 8.53 | 12.75 | 1.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.24 | 1.97 | 1.39 | 3.56 | 0.83 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.67 | 1.56 | 1.31 | 2.13 | 0.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates DVN's fair value at $55.02 vs the current price of $43.53, implying +26.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 88/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $55.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $43.08 (P10) to $73.33 (P90), with a median of $56.76.
DVN's current P/E of 10.4x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (43 peers in the group). This represents a -27.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.2x over 5 years. Signal: Discount.
63 analysts cover DVN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $47.78 (range: $42.00 — $52.00), implying +9.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (44), Hold (19), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 88/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DVN trades at the 2790th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DVN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (12.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4060.0% to approximately $26. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.