MODEL VERDICT
Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $13.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $13.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $13.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $13.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $13.17 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $14.23 | +4.9% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $16.70 | +23.1% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $9.81 | -27.7% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $4.59 | -66.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.61 | -7.1% | 100% | 71 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 5× (Current) | 7× | 9× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $10 | $10 | $13 | $18 | $23 |
| Conservative (5%) | $10 | $10 | $13 | $18 | $23 |
| Base Case (-18.6%) | $8 | $8 | $10 | $14 | $18 |
| Bull Case (-25%) | $7 | $7 | $9 | $13 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 5.35 | 5.67 | 2.57 | 8.49 | 2.23 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.04 | 1.75 | 0.65 | 61.40 | 26.08 |
| P/FCF | 14.39 | 4.01 | 2.28 | 62.63 | 23.86 |
| P/FFO | 4.76 | 4.49 | 2.29 | 7.79 | 2.35 |
| P/TBV | 0.70 | 0.71 | 0.60 | 0.79 | 0.06 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.70 | 0.71 | 0.60 | 0.79 | 0.06 |
| Div Yield | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.54 | 4.23 | 2.06 | 25.65 | 8.97 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates DX's fair value at $12.61 vs the current price of $13.57, implying -7.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.61 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.20 (P10) to $21.11 (P90), with a median of $7.41.
DX's current P/E of 5.5x compares to the industry median of 6.8x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -18.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 5.4x over 5 years. Signal: Discount.
14 analysts cover DX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $16.83 (range: $14.50 — $20.00), implying +24.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DX trades at the 1600th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (5.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (53.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3120.0% to approximately $9. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.