MODEL VERDICT
Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $8.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $8.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $8.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $8.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $7.96 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $3.78 | -55.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 2 industry peers | $50.41 | +495.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $38.31 | +352.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $34.45 | +306.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 2 industry peers | $62.72 | +640.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $33.74 | +298.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $30.01 | +254.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $33.73 | +298.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $35.53 | +319.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $29.09 | +243.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.70 | +250.7% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $5 | $7 | $9 | $10 | $12 |
| Conservative (5%) | $5 | $7 | $9 | $11 | $13 |
| Base Case (-30.3%) | $3 | $5 | $6 | $7 | $8 |
| Bull Case (-41%) | $3 | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.92 | 14.55 | 10.71 | 51.88 | 19.42 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.49 | 9.97 | 6.86 | 23.17 | 7.27 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.99 | 7.55 | 5.12 | 15.74 | 4.87 |
| P/FCF | 16.65 | 14.15 | 4.47 | 27.96 | 9.53 |
| P/FFO | 10.15 | 9.28 | 4.64 | 17.40 | 5.63 |
| P/TBV | 9.77 | 5.57 | 1.34 | 35.34 | 12.98 |
| P/AFFO | 20.24 | 19.23 | 5.11 | 37.39 | 13.30 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.48 | 1.34 | 0.19 | 3.33 | 1.13 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.29 | 0.94 | 0.12 | 3.06 | 1.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates EBS's fair value at $29.70 vs the current price of $8.47, implying +250.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24.77 (P10) to $36.06 (P90), with a median of $30.23.
EBS's current P/E of 9.1x compares to the industry median of 41.2x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -77.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.9x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
15 analysts cover EBS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $12.00 (range: $12.00 — $12.00), implying +41.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EBS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.