MODEL VERDICT
Ecolab Inc. (ECL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $259.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $269.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $274.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $270.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $273.29 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $207.46 | -20.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $212.29 | -18.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $236.87 | -8.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $179.16 | -31.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $223.27 | -14.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $184.70 | -28.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $192.94 | -25.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $189.43 | -27.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $236.74 | -8.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $177.32 | -31.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $234.15 | -9.8% | 100% | 88 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $227 | $250 | $273 | $295 | $318 |
| Conservative (7%) | $233 | $256 | $279 | $302 | $326 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $240 | $264 | $288 | $312 | $336 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $248 | $273 | $297 | $322 | $347 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 40.61 | 37.21 | 31.79 | 60.00 | 10.00 |
| EV/EBIT | 34.94 | 31.20 | 25.50 | 48.28 | 8.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.67 | 23.33 | 19.68 | 30.31 | 3.78 |
| P/FCF | 39.46 | 38.79 | 33.41 | 47.80 | 5.32 |
| P/FFO | 25.52 | 24.47 | 20.55 | 34.37 | 4.91 |
| P/AFFO | 38.66 | 36.29 | 31.66 | 50.99 | 7.47 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.70 | 7.64 | 5.75 | 10.01 | 1.52 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.38 | 4.49 | 2.94 | 5.33 | 0.85 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ECL's fair value at $234.15 vs the current price of $259.51, implying -9.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 88/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $234.15 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $209.95 (P10) to $244.90 (P90), with a median of $227.37.
ECL's current P/E of 35.6x compares to the industry median of 32.5x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +9.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 40.6x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
37 analysts cover ECL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $327.11 (range: $293.00 — $345.00), implying +26.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (26), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 88/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 12.9% is 3.2 percentage points above the 6-year average (14.5%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$332. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ECL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (14.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2780.0% to approximately $332. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.