MODEL VERDICT
Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $13.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $13.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $12.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $12.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $12.55 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $38.99 | +194.5% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $15.90 | +20.1% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $15.02 | +13.4% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $17.26 | +30.4% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $13.81 | +4.3% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $68.93 | +420.6% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $10.04 | -24.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $102.62 | +675.1% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $8 | $11 | $14 | $17 | $19 |
| Conservative (5%) | $9 | $11 | $14 | $17 | $20 |
| Base Case (-5.0%) | $8 | $10 | $13 | $16 | $18 |
| Bull Case (-7%) | $8 | $10 | $13 | $15 | $18 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.77 | 10.25 | 6.70 | 38.05 | 11.68 |
| EV/EBITDA | 313.22 | 44.87 | 7.40 | 1609.78 | 637.63 |
| P/FCF | 55.56 | 4.46 | 3.75 | 209.56 | 102.67 |
| P/TBV | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.58 | 0.79 | 0.07 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.67 | 0.66 | 0.57 | 0.79 | 0.07 |
| Div Yield | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.17 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.58 | 6.13 | 3.42 | 18.63 | 6.58 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates EFC's fair value at $102.62 vs the current price of $13.24, implying +675.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $102.62 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.30 (P10) to $349.50 (P90), with a median of $113.81.
EFC's current P/E of 9.7x compares to the industry median of 12.7x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -23.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.8x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
13 analysts cover EFC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $13.50 (range: $13.00 — $14.00), implying +2.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EFC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (49.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6940.0% to approximately $22. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.