MODEL VERDICT
Emera Incorporated (EMA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $52.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $52.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $52.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $52.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $53.41 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $77.86 | +46.9% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $67.61 | +27.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $66.19 | +24.9% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $52.12 | -1.6% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $48.32 | -8.8% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $74.46 | +40.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $77.83 | +46.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $59.94 | +13.1% | 100% | 79 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $59 | $66 | $72 | $79 | $86 |
| Conservative (5%) | $60 | $67 | $75 | $82 | $89 |
| Base Case (-2.2%) | $56 | $63 | $69 | $76 | $83 |
| Bull Case (-3%) | $56 | $62 | $69 | $75 | $82 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.70 | 14.57 | 10.59 | 25.24 | 5.77 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.11 | 16.79 | 16.17 | 30.79 | 5.47 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.27 | 12.58 | 9.89 | 15.65 | 1.99 |
| P/FFO | 6.18 | 6.19 | 4.92 | 8.73 | 1.25 |
| P/TBV | 2.52 | 1.89 | 1.45 | 4.85 | 1.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.09 | 1.10 | 0.81 | 1.56 | 0.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.69 | 1.69 | 1.35 | 2.23 | 0.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates EMA's fair value at $59.94 vs the current price of $52.99, implying +13.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $59.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $55.87 (P10) to $66.63 (P90), with a median of $61.16.
EMA's current P/E of 21.3x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -7.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.7x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
1 analysts cover EMA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $53.00 (range: $53.00 — $53.00), implying +0.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: EMA trades at the 6270th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EMA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 630.0% to approximately $50. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.