MODEL VERDICT
Embecta Corp. (EMBC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $9.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $9.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $9.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $9.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $8.85 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $50.40 | +446.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $74.87 | +711.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $45.96 | +397.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $65.88 | +613.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $75.27 | +715.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $49.86 | +440.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $42.50 | +360.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $58.04 | +528.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $46.17 | +400.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $66.20 | +617.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $49.21 | +433.2% | 100% | 68 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 6× (Current) | 8× | 10× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $7 | $7 | $10 | $13 | $17 |
| Conservative (5%) | $7 | $7 | $10 | $14 | $17 |
| Base Case (-26.4%) | $5 | $5 | $7 | $10 | $12 |
| Bull Case (-36%) | $4 | $4 | $6 | $8 | $10 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.19 | 11.37 | 6.50 | 15.52 | 4.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.72 | 9.56 | 7.48 | 16.26 | 4.08 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.14 | 8.77 | 6.50 | 12.54 | 2.57 |
| P/FCF | 23.65 | 15.19 | 3.72 | 60.52 | 26.82 |
| P/FFO | 7.89 | 8.09 | 4.78 | 10.62 | 3.11 |
| P/AFFO | 9.46 | 9.22 | 5.10 | 14.29 | 4.48 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.99 | 1.02 | 0.65 | 1.28 | 0.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates EMBC's fair value at $49.21 vs the current price of $9.23, implying +433.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 68/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $49.21 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $43.46 (P10) to $61.06 (P90), with a median of $51.71.
EMBC's current P/E of 5.7x compares to the industry median of 28.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -79.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.2x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover EMBC with a consensus rating of Sell. The consensus price target is $12.00 (range: $12.00 — $12.00), implying +30.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (1), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 68/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EMBC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (22.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 23810.0% to approximately $31. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.