MODEL VERDICT
Eastman Chemical Company (EMN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $77.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $72.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $73.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $72.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $74.25 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $80.33 | +3.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $126.69 | +63.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $78.15 | +0.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $74.62 | -3.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $144.02 | +85.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $54.87 | -29.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $14.05 | -81.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $100.72 | +29.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $86.61 | +11.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $77.78 | +0.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $73.06 | -5.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $90.36 | +16.6% | 100% | 93 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $63 | $71 | $79 | $88 | $96 |
| Conservative (5%) | $65 | $73 | $82 | $90 | $99 |
| Base Case (3.2%) | $63 | $72 | $80 | $89 | $97 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $64 | $73 | $81 | $90 | $98 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.39 | 14.46 | 11.91 | 28.65 | 5.99 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.55 | 14.82 | 11.70 | 25.50 | 4.81 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.40 | 9.50 | 8.06 | 11.03 | 1.19 |
| P/FCF | 17.10 | 15.92 | 10.23 | 27.94 | 5.66 |
| P/FFO | 9.10 | 8.01 | 7.48 | 13.01 | 2.32 |
| P/TBV | 15.58 | 14.38 | 5.26 | 28.10 | 9.19 |
| P/AFFO | 16.60 | 16.73 | 11.63 | 20.46 | 3.37 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.98 | 1.94 | 1.22 | 2.86 | 0.50 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.22 | 1.17 | 0.84 | 1.62 | 0.29 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates EMN's fair value at $90.36 vs the current price of $77.53, implying +16.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $90.36 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $77.69 (P10) to $92.81 (P90), with a median of $85.14.
EMN's current P/E of 18.9x compares to the industry median of 19.1x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -0.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
35 analysts cover EMN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $77.29 (range: $70.00 — $88.00), implying -0.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (14), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: EMN trades at the 2800th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EMN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8470.0% to approximately $143. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.