MODEL VERDICT
Emerson Electric Co. (EMR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $137.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $141.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $146.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $140.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $143.77 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $160.98 | +17.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $134.35 | -2.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $134.45 | -2.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $117.50 | -14.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $72.90 | -47.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $109.84 | -20.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 9 industry peers | $58.85 | -57.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $138.28 | +0.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $148.32 | +7.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $134.45 | -2.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $117.50 | -14.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $124.57 | -9.4% | 100% | 97 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $115 | $128 | $140 | $152 | $165 |
| Conservative (5%) | $119 | $132 | $144 | $157 | $170 |
| Base Case (4.5%) | $118 | $131 | $144 | $156 | $169 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $120 | $133 | $146 | $159 | $171 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.51 | 24.81 | 20.52 | 36.15 | 5.90 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.60 | 24.75 | 16.85 | 32.40 | 6.23 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.88 | 17.43 | 13.08 | 22.30 | 3.85 |
| P/FCF | 48.42 | 23.82 | 18.69 | 205.07 | 69.16 |
| P/FFO | 15.28 | 17.29 | 3.94 | 19.45 | 5.38 |
| P/AFFO | 17.98 | 21.18 | 4.04 | 22.52 | 6.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.15 | 3.71 | 2.11 | 5.77 | 1.56 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.70 | 4.07 | 2.58 | 4.33 | 0.69 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates EMR's fair value at $124.57 vs the current price of $137.45, implying -9.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $124.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $114.11 (P10) to $166.79 (P90), with a median of $135.28.
EMR's current P/E of 34.0x compares to the industry median of 33.3x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +2.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.5x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
41 analysts cover EMR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $161.92 (range: $125.00 — $185.00), implying +17.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (17), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: EMR trades at the 5830th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (26.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EMR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 300.0% to approximately $142. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.