MODEL VERDICT
EMX Royalty Corporation (EMX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $4.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $4.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $4.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $4.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $4.16 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $2.14 | -48.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $2.07 | -50.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $0.91 | -78.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $0.16 | -96.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $0.77 | -81.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $4.04 | -2.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $4.18 | +0.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $1.17 | -71.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.02 | -27.4% | 100% | 67 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 44.76 | 32.44 | 0.65 | 113.50 | 49.80 |
| EV/EBITDA | 100.90 | 27.10 | 23.60 | 252.02 | 130.88 |
| P/FCF | 32.73 | 26.13 | 13.36 | 58.69 | 23.37 |
| P/FFO | 28.26 | 22.73 | 1.94 | 60.10 | 29.47 |
| P/TBV | 2.54 | 2.10 | 1.40 | 4.49 | 1.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.90 | 1.69 | 1.14 | 3.66 | 0.81 |
| P/S Ratio | 71.48 | 31.32 | 8.18 | 241.87 | 84.66 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates EMX's fair value at $3.02 vs the current price of $4.16, implying -27.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.77 (P10) to $5.26 (P90), with a median of $3.14.
EMX's current P/E of -144.4x compares to the industry median of 32.1x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -549.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover EMX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $5.75 (range: $5.75 — $5.75), implying +38.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EMX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.