MODEL VERDICT
Equity Residential (EQR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $65.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $62.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $62.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $61.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $61.14 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 7 REIT peers | $69.84 | +7.2% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 5 REIT peers | $93.14 | +42.9% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $60.41 | -7.3% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $65.17 | +0.0% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $69.98 | +7.4% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $84.22 | +29.2% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $59.81 | -8.2% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $58.73 | -9.9% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $55.11 | -15.4% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $70.62 | +8.4% | 100% | 100 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $53 | $59 | $65 | $71 | $77 |
| Conservative (5%) | $55 | $61 | $67 | $73 | $79 |
| Base Case (5.1%) | $55 | $61 | $67 | $73 | $80 |
| Bull Case (7%) | $56 | $62 | $68 | $75 | $81 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.08 | 26.38 | 21.66 | 32.37 | 3.33 |
| EV/EBIT | 42.18 | 39.69 | 25.08 | 70.36 | 13.89 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.68 | 14.59 | 11.83 | 18.56 | 2.64 |
| P/FCF | 22.53 | 20.81 | 18.80 | 32.18 | 4.72 |
| P/FFO | 14.25 | 13.76 | 11.49 | 17.35 | 1.94 |
| P/TBV | 2.36 | 2.15 | 1.96 | 3.01 | 0.41 |
| P/AFFO | 14.62 | 13.81 | 13.34 | 17.40 | 1.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.36 | 2.15 | 1.96 | 3.01 | 0.41 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.82 | 8.89 | 7.90 | 14.25 | 2.30 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates EQR's fair value at $70.62 vs the current price of $65.17, implying +8.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 100/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $70.62 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $67.45 (P10) to $74.78 (P90), with a median of $71.02.
EQR's current P/E of 22.4x compares to the industry median of 28.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -22.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.1x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
46 analysts cover EQR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $70.15 (range: $63.00 — $78.50), implying +7.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (28), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 100/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EQR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (36.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4470.0% to approximately $94. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.