MODEL VERDICT
Eversource Energy (ES) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $76.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $73.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $73.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $69.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $67.79 | Below threshold | -0.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 38 industry peers | $47.83 | -37.2% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 36 industry peers | $81.02 | +6.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 31 industry peers | $101.08 | +32.6% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 38 analyst estimates | $87.76 | +15.2% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 36 industry peers | $14.94 | -80.4% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $32.32 | -57.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 38 industry peers | $47.83 | -37.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $77.37 | +1.5% | 100% | 81 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $65 | $72 | $79 | $86 | $93 |
| Conservative (5%) | $67 | $74 | $81 | $88 | $95 |
| Base Case (-4.2%) | $61 | $67 | $74 | $80 | $87 |
| Bull Case (-6%) | $60 | $66 | $73 | $79 | $86 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.39 | 24.83 | 20.01 | 30.27 | 3.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.75 | 22.59 | 19.26 | 83.18 | 23.20 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.13 | 15.02 | 11.07 | 16.11 | 1.79 |
| P/FFO | 17.66 | 12.27 | 7.93 | 57.77 | 17.80 |
| P/TBV | 2.69 | 2.87 | 1.77 | 3.29 | 0.53 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.83 | 1.86 | 1.35 | 2.15 | 0.31 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.58 | 2.45 | 1.73 | 3.30 | 0.67 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates ES's fair value at $77.37 vs the current price of $76.21, implying +1.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $77.37 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $68.64 (P10) to $96.67 (P90), with a median of $81.80.
ES's current P/E of 33.6x compares to the industry median of 21.1x (38 peers in the group). This represents a +59.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.4x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
29 analysts cover ES with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $73.14 (range: $60.00 — $80.00), implying -4.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (14), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ES trades at the 8950th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (24.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ES's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (9.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3570.0% to approximately $49. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.