MODEL VERDICT
Element Solutions Inc (ESI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $43.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $40.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $39.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $37.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $37.59 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $27.26 | -36.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $19.70 | -54.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $25.46 | -40.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $26.47 | -38.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $19.45 | -54.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $27.90 | -35.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $26.90 | -37.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $16.84 | -60.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $16.77 | -61.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $24.88 | -42.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $26.44 | -38.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.08 | -41.7% | 100% | 90 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 46× | 50× | 54× (Current) | 58× | 62× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $39 | $43 | $46 | $50 | $53 |
| Conservative (14%) | $41 | $45 | $49 | $52 | $56 |
| Base Case (21.4%) | $44 | $48 | $52 | $56 | $59 |
| Bull Case (29%) | $47 | $51 | $55 | $59 | $63 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.77 | 31.63 | 24.25 | 59.10 | 12.79 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.55 | 22.43 | 18.48 | 41.10 | 9.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.13 | 14.50 | 10.98 | 21.54 | 3.35 |
| P/FCF | 21.02 | 20.39 | 17.89 | 26.61 | 3.07 |
| P/FFO | 16.14 | 16.39 | 12.31 | 19.65 | 2.82 |
| P/AFFO | 19.03 | 18.76 | 14.00 | 24.11 | 3.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.11 | 2.25 | 1.37 | 2.57 | 0.41 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.23 | 2.39 | 1.65 | 2.51 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ESI's fair value at $25.08 vs the current price of $43.01, implying -41.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.31 (P10) to $29.04 (P90), with a median of $25.14.
ESI's current P/E of 54.4x compares to the industry median of 32.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +68.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 35.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
35 analysts cover ESI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $41.29 (range: $36.00 — $52.00), implying -4.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (9), Sell (9), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ESI trades at the 9200th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (35.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ESI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4410.0% to approximately $62. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.