MODEL VERDICT
Essex Property Trust, Inc. (ESS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $263.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $255.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $254.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $251.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $250.07 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 7 REIT peers | $235.79 | -10.5% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $238.90 | -9.3% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $243.64 | -7.5% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $197.66 | -24.9% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $301.30 | +14.4% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $286.94 | +9.0% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $185.65 | -29.5% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $195.78 | -25.7% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $269.97 | +2.5% | 100% | 83 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $223 | $244 | $265 | $287 | $308 |
| Conservative (5%) | $230 | $251 | $273 | $295 | $317 |
| Base Case (3.7%) | $227 | $248 | $270 | $291 | $313 |
| Bull Case (5%) | $230 | $251 | $273 | $295 | $317 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.62 | 33.80 | 24.73 | 46.90 | 9.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.17 | 27.75 | 20.11 | 33.89 | 4.61 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.21 | 19.42 | 16.43 | 27.84 | 4.42 |
| P/FCF | 20.95 | 19.68 | 15.70 | 29.24 | 4.64 |
| P/FFO | 16.68 | 14.56 | 13.18 | 22.73 | 3.88 |
| P/TBV | 2.94 | 2.94 | 2.33 | 3.70 | 0.45 |
| P/AFFO | 19.69 | 18.58 | 15.47 | 25.83 | 4.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.94 | 2.94 | 2.33 | 3.69 | 0.45 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.04 | 10.34 | 8.59 | 15.91 | 2.71 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates ESS's fair value at $269.97 vs the current price of $263.35, implying +2.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $269.97 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $251.05 (P10) to $296.76 (P90), with a median of $273.62.
ESS's current P/E of 25.3x compares to the industry median of 28.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -12.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.6x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
46 analysts cover ESS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $279.20 (range: $271.00 — $290.00), implying +6.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (27), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ESS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (32.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4830.0% to approximately $391. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.