MODEL VERDICT
Eaton Corporation plc (ETN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $425.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $423.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $406.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $395.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $403.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $343.18 | -19.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $327.25 | -23.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $323.21 | -24.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $272.26 | -36.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $320.59 | -24.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $270.47 | -36.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $185.99 | -56.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $309.44 | -27.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $308.38 | -27.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $323.21 | -24.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $272.25 | -36.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $265.28 | -37.7% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 41× | 45× (Current) | 49× | 53× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $369 | $409 | $449 | $489 | $529 |
| Conservative (8%) | $380 | $421 | $462 | $504 | $545 |
| Base Case (12.6%) | $396 | $439 | $481 | $524 | $567 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $411 | $456 | $500 | $545 | $589 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.05 | 30.03 | 13.98 | 34.93 | 8.24 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.64 | 25.67 | 13.82 | 30.11 | 6.04 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.65 | 18.03 | 9.58 | 24.51 | 5.26 |
| P/FCF | 27.83 | 32.51 | 13.92 | 43.71 | 11.96 |
| P/FFO | 19.58 | 21.85 | 9.84 | 28.11 | 6.36 |
| P/AFFO | 23.87 | 26.49 | 12.08 | 33.93 | 7.64 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.96 | 3.68 | 1.86 | 7.15 | 1.77 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.15 | 3.03 | 1.39 | 5.33 | 1.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ETN's fair value at $265.28 vs the current price of $425.55, implying -37.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $265.28 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $271.98 (P10) to $322.02 (P90), with a median of $296.87.
ETN's current P/E of 44.8x compares to the industry median of 34.0x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +31.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
39 analysts cover ETN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $379.78 (range: $295.00 — $428.00), implying -10.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (25), Hold (14), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 14.7% is 4.7 percentage points above the 7-year average (14.7%), with a Z-score of +1.7σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$256. (2) Multiple compression: ETN trades at the 7500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (27.0×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ETN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.7σ, meaning margins are 1.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3980.0% to approximately $256. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.