MODEL VERDICT
Entergy Corporation (ETR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $107.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $104.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $105.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $99.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $93.52 | Below threshold | +5.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 38 industry peers | $82.39 | -23.1% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 36 industry peers | $66.28 | -38.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 31 industry peers | $84.50 | -21.1% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 38 analyst estimates | $78.77 | -26.5% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 36 industry peers | $17.69 | -83.5% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 21 industry peers | $19.31 | -82.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $20.28 | -81.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 38 industry peers | $82.39 | -23.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $70.13 | -34.5% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $92 | $100 | $108 | $116 | $124 |
| Conservative (5%) | $94 | $103 | $111 | $119 | $127 |
| Base Case (2.5%) | $92 | $100 | $108 | $116 | $124 |
| Bull Case (3%) | $93 | $101 | $109 | $117 | $125 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.78 | 20.34 | 9.12 | 30.95 | 6.88 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.42 | 23.59 | 17.89 | 24.40 | 2.35 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.63 | 12.01 | 9.85 | 12.97 | 1.06 |
| P/FFO | 7.11 | 6.86 | 4.67 | 9.65 | 1.84 |
| P/TBV | 2.01 | 1.97 | 1.47 | 2.47 | 0.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.95 | 1.91 | 1.44 | 2.41 | 0.33 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.22 | 1.99 | 1.68 | 3.21 | 0.56 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates ETR's fair value at $70.13 vs the current price of $107.11, implying -34.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $70.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $63.48 (P10) to $88.44 (P90), with a median of $75.28.
ETR's current P/E of 27.4x compares to the industry median of 21.1x (38 peers in the group). This represents a +30.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
31 analysts cover ETR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $104.67 (range: $96.00 — $112.00), implying -2.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ETR trades at the 7890th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ETR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3630.0% to approximately $68. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.