MODEL VERDICT
Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $210.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $208.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $201.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $197.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $199.47 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $261.47 | +24.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $319.17 | +51.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $329.17 | +56.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $317.19 | +50.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $296.76 | +40.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $309.84 | +47.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $681.05 | +223.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $286.19 | +35.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $295.43 | +40.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $328.79 | +56.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $317.23 | +50.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $312.74 | +48.3% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (21%) | $183 | $216 | $250 | $283 | $316 |
| Conservative (34%) | $203 | $240 | $277 | $314 | $351 |
| Base Case (52.3%) | $231 | $273 | $315 | $357 | $398 |
| Bull Case (71%) | $258 | $305 | $352 | $399 | $446 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.29 | 17.92 | 10.66 | 53.96 | 16.63 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.30 | 15.08 | 9.66 | 32.77 | 7.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.00 | 10.58 | 8.32 | 13.64 | 2.11 |
| P/FCF | 14.81 | 15.38 | 7.20 | 23.50 | 4.97 |
| P/FFO | 13.03 | 13.34 | 8.20 | 20.79 | 4.21 |
| P/TBV | 6.90 | 6.84 | 2.92 | 9.64 | 2.51 |
| P/AFFO | 38.59 | 15.88 | 10.05 | 127.18 | 45.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.39 | 4.15 | 2.37 | 6.01 | 1.38 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.87 | 2.64 | 2.06 | 3.67 | 0.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates EXP's fair value at $312.74 vs the current price of $210.82, implying +48.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $312.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $251.89 (P10) to $307.65 (P90), with a median of $278.92.
EXP's current P/E of 15.3x compares to the industry median of 23.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -35.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.3x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
24 analysts cover EXP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $224.17 (range: $208.00 — $246.00), implying +6.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EXP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9900.0% to approximately $420. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.