MODEL VERDICT
eXp World Holdings, Inc. (EXPI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $6.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $6.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $6.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $6.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $5.91 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield 1 industry peers | $8.23 | +27.8% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 4 industry peers | $3.15 | -51.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 2 analyst estimates | $2.28 | -64.6% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $149.82 | +2226.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $73.57 | +1042.4% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.14 | +228.3% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 109.50 | 112.15 | 66.06 | 150.29 | 42.18 |
| EV/EBIT | 959.42 | 148.41 | 83.03 | 4314.75 | 1875.93 |
| EV/EBITDA | 129.86 | 130.33 | 61.47 | 197.33 | 55.48 |
| P/FCF | 17.50 | 13.24 | 8.72 | 42.24 | 11.84 |
| P/FFO | 376.18 | 102.33 | 60.75 | 1239.32 | 576.42 |
| P/TBV | 16.87 | 10.81 | 6.55 | 39.43 | 12.01 |
| P/AFFO | 123.12 | 130.84 | 71.77 | 166.75 | 47.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 14.60 | 9.75 | 5.95 | 33.54 | 10.30 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.92 | 0.56 | 0.30 | 2.66 | 0.86 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates EXPI's fair value at $21.14 vs the current price of $6.44, implying +228.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.14 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.79 (P10) to $33.78 (P90), with a median of $26.62.
EXPI's current P/E of -46.0x compares to the industry median of 47.7x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -196.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 109.5x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover EXPI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $11.00 (range: $11.00 — $11.00), implying +70.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EXPI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.