MODEL VERDICT
First Advantage Corporation (FA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $12.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $12.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $12.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $11.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $10.93 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $25.80 | +98.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $32.02 | +146.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $23.05 | +77.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $18.05 | +39.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $27.53 | +112.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $36.32 | +180.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $27.70 | +113.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $23.08 | +77.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.41 | +142.1% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 89.02 | 63.73 | 30.23 | 173.09 | 74.71 |
| EV/EBIT | 39.18 | 34.07 | 22.82 | 60.66 | 19.43 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.18 | 13.16 | 6.00 | 57.11 | 20.96 |
| P/FCF | 33.99 | 17.93 | 10.71 | 105.11 | 40.05 |
| P/FFO | 26.49 | 14.53 | 9.73 | 78.07 | 29.02 |
| P/AFFO | 32.40 | 18.13 | 11.32 | 82.03 | 33.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.21 | 2.13 | 1.75 | 2.67 | 0.40 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.91 | 3.17 | 1.60 | 4.09 | 0.94 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates FA's fair value at $31.41 vs the current price of $12.97, implying +142.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $23.92 (P10) to $38.97 (P90), with a median of $30.61.
FA's current P/E of -64.8x compares to the industry median of 30.1x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -315.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 89.0x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover FA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $15.00 (range: $15.00 — $15.00), implying +15.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.