MODEL VERDICT
Franklin Electric Co., Inc. (FELE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $99.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $101.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $101.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $100.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $100.71 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $88.39 | -11.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $111.92 | +12.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $103.46 | +4.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $124.72 | +25.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $129.27 | +30.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $126.97 | +27.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $44.10 | -55.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $152.92 | +53.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $143.41 | +44.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $104.86 | +5.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $124.68 | +25.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $94.34 | -5.1% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 29× | 31× (Current) | 33× | 35× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $91 | $98 | $104 | $111 | $118 |
| Conservative (6%) | $93 | $100 | $106 | $113 | $120 |
| Base Case (8.7%) | $95 | $102 | $110 | $117 | $124 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $98 | $105 | $113 | $120 | $127 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.85 | 28.24 | 20.09 | 32.34 | 4.14 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.87 | 21.93 | 16.08 | 25.15 | 3.26 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.01 | 15.02 | 12.90 | 19.85 | 2.74 |
| P/FCF | 28.73 | 20.63 | 16.53 | 62.71 | 17.93 |
| P/FFO | 20.03 | 20.25 | 15.77 | 23.60 | 2.58 |
| P/TBV | 7.55 | 7.11 | 6.31 | 12.03 | 2.02 |
| P/AFFO | 24.27 | 24.25 | 19.14 | 28.33 | 3.07 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.70 | 3.57 | 3.26 | 4.68 | 0.47 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.23 | 2.19 | 1.83 | 2.67 | 0.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FELE's fair value at $94.34 vs the current price of $99.44, implying -5.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $94.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $100.12 (P10) to $122.86 (P90), with a median of $111.26.
FELE's current P/E of 30.6x compares to the industry median of 31.8x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -3.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.8x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
11 analysts cover FELE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $100.00 (range: $100.00 — $100.00), implying +0.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 6.9% is 1.5 percentage points above the 7-year average (11.1%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$139. (2) Multiple compression: FELE trades at the 4380th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (26.8×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FELE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4020.0% to approximately $139. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.