MODEL VERDICT
F5, Inc. (FFIV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $323.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $303.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $310.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $299.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $289.81 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $478.05 | +47.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $413.72 | +28.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $416.13 | +28.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $425.80 | +31.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $507.61 | +57.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $476.85 | +47.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $414.30 | +28.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $442.62 | +36.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $437.29 | +35.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $419.01 | +29.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $422.52 | +30.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $434.19 | +34.3% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $292 | $317 | $342 | $368 | $393 |
| Conservative (12%) | $304 | $331 | $357 | $384 | $410 |
| Base Case (18.7%) | $322 | $350 | $378 | $406 | $434 |
| Bull Case (25%) | $340 | $369 | $399 | $428 | $458 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.03 | 27.23 | 19.72 | 45.83 | 8.89 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.28 | 21.46 | 15.13 | 39.64 | 8.19 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.57 | 17.96 | 13.36 | 30.66 | 5.62 |
| P/FCF | 18.76 | 18.00 | 13.10 | 24.71 | 3.68 |
| P/FFO | 22.90 | 21.25 | 17.01 | 34.00 | 5.76 |
| P/TBV | 180.82 | 25.54 | 14.24 | 931.97 | 368.65 |
| P/AFFO | 25.48 | 23.20 | 20.20 | 36.50 | 6.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.63 | 4.77 | 3.55 | 6.43 | 0.94 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.49 | 4.59 | 3.25 | 5.83 | 0.92 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FFIV's fair value at $434.19 vs the current price of $323.20, implying +34.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $434.19 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $348.48 (P10) to $476.29 (P90), with a median of $411.51.
FFIV's current P/E of 27.4x compares to the industry median of 35.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -22.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.0x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
61 analysts cover FFIV with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $310.67 (range: $292.00 — $345.00), implying -3.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (23), Hold (34), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 22.0% is 5.8 percentage points above the 7-year average (16.2%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$253. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FFIV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2180.0% to approximately $253. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.