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National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$33.35
→
Intrinsic$34.33
+3%
$23.90$34.33$54.15
Market implies 7% growth for 5 years
FIZZ appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $33, the market prices in only 7% growth — below historical 8%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $24 → Bull $54. Current price implies expectations near the base case.
Discount ↓Growth →4%6%8%10%
8%$40$44$48$52
10%$29$32$34$37
12%$23$25$27$29
14%$19$20$22$24

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($54) offers 62% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
  • 3% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (7%) ≤ historical CAGR (8%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($24) implies 28% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$184.05M
Year 2$198.77M
Year 3$214.67M
Year 4$231.85M
Year 5$250.40M
Terminal$3.68B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$170.41MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is FIZZ stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

FIZZ trades at $33.35, within 10% of our $34.33 intrinsic value estimate. At 10.0% WACC and 8.0% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $25.23 (bear) to $46.50 (bull).

What is FIZZ's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $170M, projected at 8.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-122M net debt and dividing by 0.09B shares: Bear $25.23 | Base $34.33 | Bull $46.50. Current price $33.35 implies +7% to base case.

How is FIZZ's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 8.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($3.09B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 18.2x.