MODEL VERDICT
National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $34.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $34.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $34.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $33.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $34.71 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $42.03 | +23.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $65.38 | +91.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $50.64 | +48.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $54.24 | +59.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $65.10 | +90.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $60.78 | +78.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $32.93 | -3.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $66.63 | +95.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $71.69 | +110.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $50.41 | +47.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $50.79 | +48.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $53.77 | +57.6% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $27 | $31 | $35 | $39 | $43 |
| Conservative (5%) | $27 | $31 | $36 | $40 | $44 |
| Base Case (7.4%) | $28 | $32 | $36 | $41 | $45 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $28 | $33 | $37 | $42 | $46 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.39 | 24.37 | 16.03 | 32.71 | 6.39 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.21 | 17.97 | 12.17 | 24.34 | 4.74 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.98 | 15.81 | 11.18 | 20.63 | 3.63 |
| P/FCF | 27.32 | 25.19 | 17.53 | 41.83 | 7.90 |
| P/FFO | 20.69 | 20.67 | 14.39 | 26.53 | 4.55 |
| P/TBV | 10.82 | 9.09 | 6.96 | 19.38 | 4.50 |
| P/AFFO | 24.53 | 23.98 | 17.44 | 30.33 | 4.65 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.35 | 8.79 | 6.73 | 18.19 | 4.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.42 | 3.83 | 2.36 | 3.97 | 0.71 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FIZZ's fair value at $53.77 vs the current price of $34.11, implying +57.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $53.77 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $48.46 (P10) to $56.40 (P90), with a median of $52.35.
FIZZ's current P/E of 17.1x compares to the industry median of 25.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -32.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.4x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover FIZZ with a consensus rating of Sell. The consensus price target is $34.00 (range: $34.00 — $34.00), implying -0.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (2), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FIZZ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3010.0% to approximately $44. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.