MODEL VERDICT
National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $36.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $37.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $36.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $35.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $33.10 | Pending | +6.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $39.86 | +9.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $45.01 | +23.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $53.29 | +46.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $46.68 | +28.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $53.81 | +48.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $58.47 | +60.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 11 industry peers | $32.28 | -11.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $31.64 | -13.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 14 industry peers | $24.21 | -33.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $53.12 | +46.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $45.64 | +25.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $47.43 | +30.5% | 100% | 93 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $29 | $33 | $37 | $41 | $45 |
| Conservative (5%) | $29 | $33 | $38 | $42 | $46 |
| Base Case (7.4%) | $30 | $34 | $38 | $43 | $47 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $31 | $35 | $39 | $44 | $48 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.39 | 24.37 | 16.03 | 32.71 | 6.39 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.21 | 17.97 | 12.17 | 24.34 | 4.74 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.98 | 15.81 | 11.18 | 20.63 | 3.63 |
| P/FCF | 27.32 | 25.19 | 17.53 | 41.83 | 7.90 |
| P/FFO | 20.69 | 20.67 | 14.39 | 26.53 | 4.55 |
| P/TBV | 10.82 | 9.09 | 6.96 | 19.38 | 4.50 |
| P/AFFO | 24.53 | 23.98 | 17.44 | 30.33 | 4.65 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.35 | 8.79 | 6.73 | 18.19 | 4.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.42 | 3.83 | 2.36 | 3.97 | 0.71 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FIZZ's fair value at $47.43 vs the current price of $36.35, implying +30.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $47.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $40.06 (P10) to $52.36 (P90), with a median of $46.17.
FIZZ's current P/E of 18.3x compares to the industry median of 26.8x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -31.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.4x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover FIZZ with a consensus rating of Sell. The consensus price target is $35.00 (range: $35.00 — $35.00), implying -3.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (2), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FIZZ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2290.0% to approximately $45. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.