Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$36.35
→
Intrinsic$34.33
-6%
$23.90$34.33$54.15
Market implies 10% growth for 5 years
FIZZ appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $36, the market prices in 10% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (8%).
Range: Bear $24 → Bull $54. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $40 | $44 | $48 | $52 |
| 10% | $29 | $32 | $34 | $37 |
| 12% | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| 14% | $19 | $20 | $22 | $24 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($54) offers 49% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($24) implies 34% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
Loading charts...
5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$184.05M
Year 2$198.77M
Year 3$214.67M
Year 4$231.85M
Year 5$250.40M
Terminal$3.68B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$170.41MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.