MODEL VERDICT
Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $8.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $8.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $8.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $8.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $8.06 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $8.92 | +2.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $24.54 | +181.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $7.09 | -18.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $19.88 | +128.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $20.35 | +133.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $22.46 | +157.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $37.40 | +328.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $28.56 | +227.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $7.06 | -19.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $19.74 | +126.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.13 | +96.4% | 100% | 91 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
| Conservative (5%) | $8 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
| Base Case (-11.1%) | $6 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 |
| Bull Case (-15%) | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.31 | 27.87 | 17.66 | 38.81 | 6.28 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.87 | 22.74 | 13.42 | 31.65 | 5.98 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.25 | 15.91 | 9.03 | 18.89 | 3.40 |
| P/FCF | 21.62 | 17.50 | 7.23 | 43.75 | 12.40 |
| P/FFO | 14.62 | 16.36 | 9.18 | 17.46 | 3.30 |
| P/TBV | 73.79 | 38.25 | 1.77 | 295.66 | 109.73 |
| P/AFFO | 25.23 | 24.55 | 9.19 | 41.18 | 10.74 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.42 | 3.55 | 1.77 | 4.25 | 0.83 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.01 | 1.10 | 0.44 | 1.35 | 0.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates FLO's fair value at $17.13 vs the current price of $8.72, implying +96.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.72 (P10) to $21.57 (P90), with a median of $18.56.
FLO's current P/E of 21.8x compares to the industry median of 17.7x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +23.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.3x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
20 analysts cover FLO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $10.00 (range: $8.00 — $11.00), implying +14.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (11), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FLO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.7σ, meaning margins are 1.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (3.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 20150.0% to approximately $26. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.