MODEL VERDICT
Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. (FOLD) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $14.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $14.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $14.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $14.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $14.28 | Below threshold | +0.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $7.75 | -46.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $1.88 | -86.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $1.00 | -93.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $18.18 | +26.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $20.06 | +39.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6.94 | -51.7% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 37.77 | 25.39 | 9.16 | 91.14 | 37.45 |
| P/B Ratio | 15.83 | 14.78 | 4.92 | 28.68 | 9.68 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.17 | 10.72 | 5.43 | 22.91 | 6.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates FOLD's fair value at $6.94 vs the current price of $14.37, implying -51.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.24 (P10) to $8.28 (P90), with a median of $6.25.
FOLD's current P/E of -79.8x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -472.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
24 analysts cover FOLD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $14.33 (range: $14.00 — $14.50), implying -0.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FOLD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.