MODEL VERDICT
Forestar Group Inc. (FOR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $27.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $28.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $26.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $26.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $25.98 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 9 REIT peers | $34.36 | +24.9% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 9 REIT peers | $35.80 | +30.2% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $22.80 | -17.1% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $52.33 | +90.3% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $35.27 | +28.3% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $35.25 | +28.2% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $36.97 | +34.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $40.56 | +47.5% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.93 | +8.8% | 100% | 79 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $14 | $21 | $29 | $36 | $43 |
| Conservative (14%) | $15 | $22 | $30 | $37 | $45 |
| Base Case (21.2%) | $16 | $24 | $32 | $40 | $48 |
| Bull Case (29%) | $17 | $25 | $34 | $42 | $51 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.47 | 9.67 | 4.29 | 26.39 | 7.54 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.55 | 8.45 | 5.28 | 25.98 | 7.40 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.91 | 6.37 | 1.31 | 9.93 | 3.20 |
| P/FFO | 5.75 | 6.38 | 1.05 | 9.76 | 3.42 |
| P/TBV | 0.92 | 0.94 | 0.64 | 1.21 | 0.23 |
| P/AFFO | 5.82 | 6.45 | 1.06 | 9.83 | 3.46 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.95 | 1.05 | 0.64 | 1.21 | 0.22 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.03 | 0.87 | 0.51 | 2.04 | 0.50 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates FOR's fair value at $29.93 vs the current price of $27.50, implying +8.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $26.12 (P10) to $33.07 (P90), with a median of $29.45.
FOR's current P/E of 8.4x compares to the industry median of 10.7x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -22.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.5x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
12 analysts cover FOR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $28.38 (range: $13.50 — $40.00), implying +3.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FOR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3900.0% to approximately $38. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.