MODEL VERDICT
FVCBankcorp, Inc. (FVCB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $16.79 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $17.34 | +3.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 5 industry peers | $18.74 | +11.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 5 bank peers | $20.42 | +21.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 4 industry peers | $4.66 | -72.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $17.36 | +3.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $15.19 | -9.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.33 | +3.2% | 100% | 80 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $12 | $15 | $17 | $20 | $22 |
| Conservative (5%) | $13 | $15 | $18 | $20 | $23 |
| Base Case (6.6%) | $13 | $15 | $18 | $21 | $23 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $13 | $16 | $18 | $21 | $24 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.24 | 13.36 | 11.30 | 67.62 | 20.54 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.25 | 9.72 | 3.60 | 73.78 | 24.40 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.71 | 9.68 | 3.49 | 64.68 | 21.10 |
| P/FCF | 13.61 | 13.55 | 10.65 | 16.12 | 1.80 |
| P/FFO | 20.85 | 13.77 | 10.99 | 58.61 | 18.57 |
| P/TBV | 1.26 | 1.24 | 1.01 | 1.52 | 0.21 |
| P/AFFO | 21.51 | 13.97 | 11.06 | 61.56 | 19.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.21 | 1.19 | 0.98 | 1.45 | 0.19 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.02 | 3.02 | 2.07 | 4.01 | 0.77 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates FVCB's fair value at $17.33 vs the current price of $16.79, implying +3.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.33 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $14.00 (P10) to $22.24 (P90), with a median of $17.66.
FVCB's current P/E of 13.9x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -3.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.2x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
3 analysts cover FVCB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $19.00 (range: $19.00 — $19.00), implying +13.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FVCB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6870.0% to approximately $28. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.