The Gap, Inc. (GAP)
Valuation Overview•Is The Gap, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
Moderate quality score of 55/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant growth concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
GAP demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-0.5% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 8.4%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.5B | +1.9% | -0.5% | +2.2% | -0.3% | |
| EBITDA | $573.0M | — | +50.7% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $339.0M | -3.3% | — | — | -1.2% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.90 | -2.7% | — | — | -0.4% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $78.0M | -20.8% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 40.5% | 40.3% | 39.0% | 37.9% |
| Operating Margin | 8.4% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% |
| Net Margin | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| FCF Margin | 8.3% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.7% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.37 | $0.38 | +1.8% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.45 | $0.45 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.59 | $0.62 | +5.6% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.55 | $0.57 | +3.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.45 | $0.51 | +12.9% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.36 | $0.54 | +50.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.58 | $0.72 | +24.1% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.40 | $0.54 | +35.0% |
Total return is +4.6% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -20.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -14.7% | -24.0% | — |
| 1Y | +4.6% | -20.4% | +3.2% |
| 3YCAGR | +37.0% | +17.1% | +21.1% |
| 5YCAGR | -5.0% | -18.3% | +9.6% |
| 10YCAGR | +3.0% | -10.4% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about The Gap, Inc. (GAP) valuation, health, and returns.
The Gap, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +104.8% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $43.32)
The Gap, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $43.32 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $37.74 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $30.25 (implying +43.0% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
The Gap, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 55/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.1 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 12.7%.
The Gap, Inc. pays a 3.0% dividend yield, covered by a 30% payout ratio with 1 years of growth, supplemented by a 2.0% buyback yield.
The Gap, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +1.9% 1Y revenue growth and -2.7% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -0.5%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 48 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 92% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +43.0% change from current levels.
Investment risks for The Gap, Inc. include: -28.8% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.38x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.38x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.