MODEL VERDICT
Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $131.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $130.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $137.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $139.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $138.99 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $124.38 | -5.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $126.43 | -4.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $7.70 | -94.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $157.54 | +19.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $13.50 | -89.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $158.51 | +20.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $99.63 | -24.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $99.97 | -24.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $7.69 | -94.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $156.79 | +19.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $93.61 | -28.9% | 100% | 80 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 290× | 318× | 346× (Current) | 374× | 402× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $112 | $123 | $134 | $145 | $156 |
| Conservative (5%) | $116 | $127 | $138 | $149 | $160 |
| Base Case (-38.2%) | $68 | $75 | $81 | $88 | $94 |
| Bull Case (-52%) | $53 | $58 | $64 | $69 | $74 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 132.56 | 18.00 | 14.73 | 598.15 | 221.89 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.06 | 15.59 | 10.27 | 79.57 | 24.82 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.55 | 13.59 | 9.44 | 29.95 | 7.15 |
| P/FCF | 11.02 | 10.94 | 8.48 | 13.73 | 1.84 |
| P/FFO | 20.74 | 12.22 | 11.07 | 45.90 | 14.11 |
| P/AFFO | 27.23 | 13.91 | 11.91 | 77.21 | 24.53 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.49 | 4.35 | 3.66 | 6.02 | 0.83 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.64 | 3.70 | 2.98 | 4.03 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates GILD's fair value at $93.61 vs the current price of $131.65, implying -28.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $93.61 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $100.22 (P10) to $129.14 (P90), with a median of $114.45.
GILD's current P/E of 346.4x compares to the industry median of 20.3x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +1609.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 132.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
58 analysts cover GILD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $161.88 (range: $133.00 — $180.00), implying +23.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (37), Hold (20), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 28.9% is 13.0 percentage points above the 7-year average (15.9%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$28. (2) Multiple compression: GILD trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (132.6×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GILD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7900.0% to approximately $28. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.