MODEL VERDICT
Global Medical REIT Inc. (GMRE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $37.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $35.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $36.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $36.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $35.28 | Pending | +3.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 15 industry peers | $360.26 | +868.4% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $407.18 | +994.6% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 16 industry peers | $358.79 | +864.5% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $11.21 | -69.9% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $2.00 | -94.6% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $212.67 | +471.7% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 15 industry peers | $357.58 | +861.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $160.58 | +331.7% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 100× | 110× | 120× (Current) | 130× | 140× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $32 | $35 | $39 | $42 | $45 |
| Conservative (7%) | $33 | $36 | $40 | $43 | $46 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $34 | $38 | $41 | $44 | $48 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $35 | $39 | $42 | $46 | $49 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 45.69 | 9.65 | 2.91 | 124.52 | 68.34 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.29 | 18.24 | 11.86 | 44.68 | 10.82 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.71 | 8.43 | 6.54 | 13.64 | 2.41 |
| P/FFO | 2.20 | 1.83 | 0.87 | 3.46 | 0.97 |
| P/TBV | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.15 | 0.40 | 0.08 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 0.34 | 0.07 |
| Div Yield | 0.41 | 0.41 | 0.24 | 0.59 | 0.12 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.12 | 1.03 | 0.73 | 1.86 | 0.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates GMRE's fair value at $160.58 vs the current price of $37.20, implying +331.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $160.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $92.87 (P10) to $161.86 (P90), with a median of $126.78.
GMRE's current P/E of 120.0x compares to the industry median of 36.2x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +231.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 45.7x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
22 analysts cover GMRE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $40.00 (range: $40.00 — $40.00), implying +7.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: GMRE trades at the 5450th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (45.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GMRE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.